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Layoff Announcement Query

A Challenge to Other Means of Collecting Forward-Looking Employment Data

Economists struggle with Gray areas; counting layoffs is no Christmas when done by hand

Locating Layoff Announcements in US News Sources: An Example of Precision Finding of Text-Events, using Epimenides NLP

Challenge: Process entire text of 1993 Wall Street Journal (4.3 million words) to find layoff announcements, i.e. layoffs as today's news

Run time: 30 seconds to process all text (Intel PII processor)

Accuracy: Total layoffs found were 430,000, vis-a-vis standard count of 405,000 for year by Challenger Gray Christmas, i.e. a 6% difference; BUT it appears that the extra 25,000 layoffs located were genuine, and were missed by Challenger

Same count could otherwise take a small team of humans about 2 person-years

Factors noted include: percentage of workforce laid off, effective date of layoff, announcement date, number of jobs lost, firm doing the laying off, others

 

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